Long Bonds, Long Dollar, Long Gold, Long Bitcoin, & Long Crude
Closing Market Update for 3-1-2022
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After the short covering opportunity well timed on the lows last week in risk assets, today we booked gains in our real-time alerts Telegram room in our core long 10yr position and 5s, while also booking gains in Ultras $UB (WN Bloomberg) that we have been long vs our core short in 30s. Today I did put a few 30s back out short.
So as such we still like playing a bull steepener in 5s-30s and 10s-30s. Also despite a flatter 2s-10s curve this morning which I still think has the possibility to invert in the next 3months, 5s-30s, 10s-30s did steepen.
As such we can to continue to do more of the same on pullbacks in bonds, buying 5s and 10s; and on the upside like I said we did reshort a few 30s and if we see the 160/161 zone on ZB (US) I want to add and short more long bonds.
As for the rest of some of these core longs - we booked gains on Brent - we made a nice call there several days ago - it screamed today up +8%.
If you want to play short WTI vs Long BZ you can I’m doing that, but stay net long crude/energy.
Dollar was up today too and we covered some of our core Euro short..
Dollar remains bullish and keep selling rallies on the Euro.
Gold nice buys last week also, I booked 1/3 of my profits and I did sell small Silver against this position but staying net long metals via Gold.
Lastly on Bitcoin….I booked some gains yesterday after keeping the book net long BTC. However today I sold some hedges against the crypto portfolio because the 4 hour cycle is high again and we are trading up into major resistance again on the daily level. That daily cycle is high as well which is a dominant cycle. Also if Tech fails around these levels which we think we may as Nasdaq this morning was back at the top of its range and its cycles were high also, if tech and stocks fail then the correlation to BTC right now is around .90 so we can see Bitcoin drop with stocks again. (The green circles show the RMC - Real Money Candles as of late - which is and was bullish)
So overall, I will do a video update in the morning but still like the same Risk Off -Growth SLowing - Deflation from the Peak Inflation call. So we will add back to bonds and gold and things that were up today on a pullback and I like setting up short equities today/tomorrow.
But good job today for those playing along and here’s some of the net results…
Have a great evening - talk in the am.