What’s up everyone,
September is starting off with some vol - like we hoped! At least more than the summer lol.
I want to talk Global Macro but also about our new Prop Desk. I’m excited to finally after 3 years of moving toward this, we’re finally ready to put together a more serious team to start making some real money.
I talk about my vision and I’m excited to open up the discussions for those that are interested and who want to join the team. I’m only looking for a group of 5 for this quarter into the end of the year. I’ll post the video below and get in touch with me at our website here on the calendar: Prop Desk or lets talk in the Telegram room here: JRM Trading Chat Room
As far as markets….
The main theme continues to be Inflation & Growth - it always is, despite the usual Old Wall St story telling and narratives. We have had the right idea to be cautious of risk assets into the end of Aug and now we saw the beginning of Sept put in the high in equities. I touch on the levels at the end of the below video but, key take away is growth is slowing on the margin relative to the cycle peak in Q2 of 12.18%. This is the chart of US Real GDP from Hedgeye’s now cast model…
This is the growth slowing I was talking about and there is good reason to think more of the same will continue into the first part of next year just based on the comps (or comparing the crazy growth numbers coming out of the whole of covid lows).
So the play is to continue to be light on long-term longs in equities and look for the breaks of the pivots I show in the video and also a breakout in vol above 24/25 on the VIX, in addition a continued move higher in the dollar (down euro).
Enjoy this video - I’m pumped to talk to some of you about the team. It’s going to be big. I want to make it a hungry group of highly skilled, confident, and well trained traders. We’re going to take advantage of whatever moves - wherever the opportunities are we’ll be ready to capitalize.
Have a great evening,